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Our Members’ Research

Research is vital in formulating and developing solutions to climate change. Our members are currently involved in several programs and projects that directly investigate and address climate change. While much of climate change research has largely invested in mitigation, focus is broadening to include impacts assessment and adaptation. These three streams are interdependent and when studied together form a cohesive climate change approach.

Conducting and Implementing Research

Members’ research crosses a wide section of climate change mitigation, impacts assessment, and adaptation and utilizes a variety of tools ranging from software programs, scientific applications, and technology to events, campaigns, and publications. As a Community of Practice, the TUCCN provides an opportunity for experts to work together and identify high priority research needs and knowledge gaps. TUCCN as a community and forum provides an opportunity for researchers and decision-makers to combine resources and expertise in pursuit of cost-efficient and effective approaches in meeting our GTA Kyoto goals and areas for research. This is a practical undertaking, with studies and their yields providing tools and solutions for implementing.

Research and Programs

City of Toronto

Change is in the Air: Toronto's Climate Change, Clean Air, and Sustainable Energy Action Plan, was unanimously endorsed by council in 2007. The steps to be taken are on-going. The plan includes more than 100 actions to reduce the greenhouse gas and smog-causing emissions which contribute to climate change. It also recommended the development of a comprehensive strategy to adapt to the long-term changes in our weather patterns that are already underway. http://www.toronto.ca/changeisintheair/involved.htm

In January 2008, City staff hosted a panel of Canadian climate change experts speaking at a special meeting of the Parks & Environment Committee. The experts worked with staff to lay the groundwork for the City’s Climate Change Adaptation strategy.
http://www.toronto.ca/teo/adaptation_experts.htm
http://www.toronto.ca/teo/pdf/lawson_pres_jan%2022.pdf

Work is underway to develop a strategy to prepare Toronto for the long-lasting changes in weather patterns that are caused by climate change. Ahead of the Storm: Preparing Toronto for Climate Change outlines a series of actions to improve Toronto’s resilience to climate change. http://www.toronto.ca/teo/pdf/ahead_of_the_storm.pdf

Key components include Live Green Toronto Grants to help fund neighbourhood and community-based green projects, Community Animators to work with and help community groups turn their ideas into action, a one-stop website to promote living green, and public outreach at events including the annual Green Toronto Awards and Live Green Toronto Festival.

A series of short-term actions that began in 2008 that will help prevent and/or minimize the impacts of climate change in Toronto.
A series of actions that will guide the City’s development of a comprehensive, long-term strategy to adapt to climate change.

Clean Air Partnership

CAP employs a range of tools including research, mapping, policy initiatives, market solutions and public education.

Alliance for Resilient Cities – We facilitate cooperation through a network of local governments working on climate change adaptation.

Greater Toronto Area Clean Air Council – A network of 28 municipalities in the GTA and numerous provincial and federal government departments. The Council promotes the reduction of air pollution emissions and increased awareness of regional air quality issues through the efforts of all three levels of government. The Council also works collaboratively to pool research needs and identify and implement initiatives that help to reduce energy use, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions all while making our communities greener and more livable.

  • 20/20 The Way to Clean Air a social marketing energy conservation campaign delivered in partnership with health units and schools and community partners.
  • Research for Federation of Canadian Municipalities on developing a milestones process for municipal climate change adaptation.
  • Building Evaluation Capacity Program - A distance education curriculum that builds ENGO capacity on project management and evaluation.
  • Research for the Ontario Ministry of the Environment on Lessons for Great Lakes Communities from the City of Toronto Adaptation Planning Process.
  • Urban Heat Island Summit (2009).
  • Development of a GIS-based decision-support tool for tackling urban heat. Local Climate Change Visioning Tools and Processes for Community Decision Making (a national research and action project with UBC, University of Waterloo, U of T and others).
  • Urban Forestry and Climate Change Workshop (2009).
  • 2-day workshop for Canadian Institute of Planners on Planning for Climate Change (October 2008).
  • Development of a training program for municipal officials on Climate Change Adaptation Planning.

Environment Canada

The Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN) is Environment Canada’s updated interface for distributing climate change scenarios and adaptation research. The CCCSN maintains Canada's reputation for preserving a leading-edge scenarios facility that will become one of the premier sources for Canadians and international researchers seeking information on climate change scenarios, downscaling models, impacts research and adaptation science. www.cccsn.ca

The Canadian Atmospheric Hazards Network contains a compendium of leading-edge analysis for Disaster management Planning. www.hazards.ca

Through the CCCSN, which is based upon the Adaptation and Impacts Research Division (AIRD) Network, which links development of the site with ongoing researchers at various AIRD nodes, nationally and internationally.

The CCCSN continues to support climate change impact and adaptation research in Canada and other partner countries through the provision of GCM scenarios, RCM scenarios and downscaling tools, impacts research and adaptation science.

The CCCSN can provide high level scientific support for downscaling and impacts and adaptation research, access to existing research, access to new research tools as they are developed at the AIRD nodes and training in the use of these tools.

The CCCSN supports academic researchers as well as other stakeholders outside of academia who require scenario information, downscaling expertise, hazards information and many impacts studies and adaptation models for decision-making.

Environment Canada uses the following tools to address climate change:

  • Climate Change Scenarios Nodes and Verification Research.
  • New Statistical Downscaling Models and Methodologies.
  • Hazards Nodes for Risk and Disaster Management
  • New Extreme Event Methodologies - Transportation, Infrastructure and Settlements.
  • Protected Areas and Biodiversity under Climate Change.
  • Water Resources for Boundary Waters and Coastal Zones.
  • Northern Communities - Climate Change Scenarios Node.
  • Urban Climate.
  • Change Science and Adaptation Scenarios. Bioclimate profiles for Canada. Guideline Documents for Municipalities.
  • Links to IPCC guidelines on scenario use and interpretation.
  • Links to other tools used in impacts and adaptation research.
  • Scenario Reports and selected scientific publications related to climate scenarios and impacts and adaptation research.

Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

The Institute and its staff are active in the production of research that advances knowledge about reducing losses due to disasters. ICLR also supports research seeking to advance society's capacity to reduce the adverse impact of natural disasters. Support may involve letters or other public statements to demonstrate the importance of a specific research proposal. Frequently we act as advisors to researchers seeking to ensure that their findings will be relavent to insurers and others concerned about disaster loss prevention. Also we provide modest financial contributions to some projects. Some ongoing research includes the following:

ICLR has established four research priorities which articulate the Institute’s longer-term research program. Interdisciplinary investigation into these issues will provide a comprehensive understanding of the issues facing disaster loss reduction.

  • Reducing wind and earthquake damage to housing, other buildings and infrastructure.
  • Understanding disaster risk management and prevention.
  • Enhancing government science related to natural disasters.
  • Improving community actions for disaster mitigation.

Pollution Probe

  • Designing energy systems that incorporate both climate change mitigation and adaptation considerations
  • Strategic changes in land use decision-making and planning that leads to a net environmental benefit for the atmosphere, and water and land resources
  • Inclusion of climate change in designing and implementing a national water strategy, including mainstreaming of adaptation in watershed management
  • The needs and opportunities for developing effective adaptation measures in response to changes in the frequency and duration of extreme weather events, including critical infrastructure and human health
  • Understanding cumulative impacts from climate change and other atmospheric stresses such as air pollution and acid rain

Ryerson University

We haven’t identified research priorities for climate change as a university, or in the environmental applied science and management graduate program. Rather, the faculty and students have introduced the current concerns about climate change through their individual research choices.

At Ryerson students have applied models in their research projects. The research on green roofs has included the UFORE model developed at the USGS. Other research projects have used GIS based models for storm water run-off prediction in with application to extreme events. Still others have applied air dispersion models.

We’ve introduced Climate Change impacts in the Public Health curriculum by addressing the potential health effects of extreme temperatures, changes in disease vector distributions and severe weather event impacts (flooding, etc.) on human health. Health Canada researchers have been invited to visit Ryerson to review the current national data on climate change health effects. As well, in our emergency planning for health course, the curriculum includes climate change extreme events as incidents for emergency response including potential disease outbreaks.

In our graduate program in Environmental Applied Science and Management, we’ve introduced Climate Change effects on Great lakes temperatures and biota as part of the graduate seminar.

Past masters’ theses include green roof technologies for climate change adaptation, and more research on green roof applications, and climate change effects in the Arctic. Currently one masters thesis examines climate change response impacts on energy policy, examining the effects of climate change awareness on energy production choices in Canada; an examination of the ‘nuclear renaissance’ notion in public policy.

In our planning program, our lead researcher on climate change effects and municipal planning, Professor Pamela Robinson, has received an SSHRC grant to investigate municipal climate change responses, which is just getting under way.

Toronto and Region Conservation Authority

TRCA has been incorporating sustainable thinking and values into its operations and programs since its incorporation in 1957. At TRCA, we are not only integrating climate change into our own business operations, we are also proposing new partnerships and leveraging advanced science to meet the climate challenge on a local, regional, and national scale. We have built a solid knowledge base and continue to add to it through research and monitoring through programs such as the Regional Watershed Monitoring Network (RWMN) and Sustainable Technologies Evaluation Program ( STEP). Climate prediction models are being used in the development of watershed plans and new water management technologies are being developed.

TRCA's adaptation approach is based on reducing harm to individuals and building resilient natural systems and watersheds. To decrease vulnerabilities to climate risks, TRCA has initiated work to identify climate risks in communities and natural systems through programs such as TRCA’s Terrestrial Natural Heritage Systems Strategy (TNHSS). TRCA’s recent projects such as West Don Lands have integrated flood risk assessment into community design process. Working with partners, we will develop protocols for water related infrastructure design practices, review and address urban flooding issues and work towards mainstreaming climate adaptation. TRCA is also updating its current policies and programs to address gaps and reduce threats to life and property.

With an objective to improve air quality, community health, and biodiversity, we aim to acquire and enhance approximately 4,000 hectares of greenspace. TRCA is currently the largest landowner in the GTA region with approximately 15,000 hectares of greenspace.

To help reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), we are promoting a culture of conservation through market transformation programs such a Pearson Eco-Business Zone ( North America’s Largest ICI zone to achieve water, waste and energy efficiencies), Major’s Megawatt Challenge, Greening Retail and Greening Health Care. We are modeling green building design and energy conservation at the Living City Campus at Kortright through projects such as Archetype sustainable house built in partnership with Canada Green (CaGBC) Building Council and Building and Land Development Institute (BILD).

To green our own operations we are deriving 20% of our energy needs form Green energy sources and aim to go carbon neutral in future. TRCA’s Restoration Services Centre is a LEED platinum building which uses 100% green energy. We aim to achieve 80% waste reduction at our education centres. TRCA is also looking into the feasibility to promote near urban agriculture on TRCA lands to support locally grown food.

Plans are underway to coordinate action to establish an Ontario Centre for Collaboration on Climate Change - a provincial centre for research and development in climate change adaptation and mitigation with a global reputation.

University of Toronto

PHILIP H. BYER

The Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency funded a research project at the University of Toronto in 2002-04 to investigate methods for addressing and communicating climate change uncertainties that can arise within environmental assessments (EAs) of individual projects.  A full research report “Addressing Climate Change Uncertainties in Project Environmental Assessments,” March 2004, is available at http://www.ceaa-acee.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=A246A4F7-1&toc=show&offset=1 . The report consists of the following components:

  • A review of recent project environmental assessments (EAs) that concluded that impacts from climate change have been inadequately addressed within the EAs and that the corresponding uncertainties have been addressed even more poorly.
  • An explanation of the relationship between climate change and the environmental assessments of projects.
  • Descriptions of three basic approaches – scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic analysis – that  proponents can use for integrating climate change-induced impacts and their uncertainties into their environmental assessments, together with a framework for judging the circumstances that determine which method would be most applicable.
  • An illustrative example of the use of these methods, based on a proposal for a hydroelectric project.
  • A description of how the results from such analyses can be effectively communicated to the EA’s disparate set of technical and non-technical decision-makers and stakeholders.

A proposed set of general guidelines to improve how proponents incorporate climate change and its uncertainties into project EAs.
 
Much of the work is summarized in two papers:
Byer, P.H. and J.S. Yeomans, "Methods for addressing climate change uncertainties in project environmental impact assessments," Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal (IAPA), Vol. 25, No. 2, June 2007, pp. 85-99.
 
Byer, P.H. et. al., "Addressing and communicating climate change and its uncertainties in project environmental impact assessments" that is forthcoming in 2009 in the Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management.

BRAD BASS

Research interests include simulating adaptation with anticipatory/emergent computing; ecological engineering adaptations to atmospheric change (green walls, green roofs and living machines); energy sector adaptations to climate, policy and technological change; climate change scenarios and are addressed in the following projects:

  • Simulating Adaptation with Anticipatory/Emergent Computing.  This research program uses agent-based simulation in the COBWEB (Complexity and Organized Behaviour Within Environmental Bounds) platform to explore the behaviour of complex systems in a changing environment.
  • Ecological Engineering Adaptations to Atmospheric Change.  The Environmental Services Performance Research model is used to simulate the effectiveness of green roofs and walls in reducing energy consumption. Breathing walls of different sizes are used to assess the impact of different green roof plants on air quality.
  • Energy Sector Adaptations to Climate, Policy and Technological Change. Energy sector adaptations to climate and policy changes have been explored for Ontario and different regions using the Regional Energy and Analysis Model (REAM), developed at the University of Toronto.
  • Climate Change Scenarios.  The main node of the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN) is located within the Centre for Environment. The CCSN is used to disseminate global climate model output, analytical tools and technical advice for climate impact assessment.

GRACE KOSHIDA


Research interests include agricultural and urban drought impacts; high-impact weather events; disaster mitigation; climate change impacts on Canadian water resources and are addressed in the following projects:

  • Canadian Agricultural Adaptations to 21st Century Droughts: Preparing for Climate Change?  The objective of this completed project was to determine the effectiveness of current adaptation options in reducing the vulnerability of agriculture to drought.  Regional stakeholder consultations and case studies were carried out in Southern Ontario, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.
  • The Tap Runs Dry:  Lessons Learned and Forgotten by Southern Ontario Communities During Past Severe Droughts and Implications for Climate Change. This completed project focused on documenting past drought impacts and responses in southern Ontario communities.  Drought contingency plans in cities have primarily focused on temporary reactive management of water shortages rather than on water supply protection plans.  One of the key outputs from the project was a vulnerability index and web-based mapping tools to quantify and visualize drought vulnerability.



MONIRUL MIRZA

Research interests include hydro-meteorological analyses, analyses of extremes and natural hazards, climate change and sea-level rise vulnerability, impacts and adaptation (VIA) for water and energy sectors, climate change scenario construction, environmental security and sustainable development, hydro-politics and transboundary water resources management, water resources modelling and assessment, environmental management, environmental impacts assessment, development of statistical and management application tools and application of GIS. These interests are addressed in the following projects:

  • Climate Change in the Greater Toronto Region. The Greater Toronto Region is highly vulnerable to climatic extremes-drought, flooding, tornadoes and heat waves, etc. Vulnerability of the region to climatic extremes is likely to increase in future. This report will address following major issues: Geography and Climate of Toronto, Changes in Climate, Human Interferences and Activities special focus on urban heat island effect, Climate Change Scenarios for the region from GCM, RCM and statistical downscaled and implications for water, energy, infrastructure (intensity, duration and frequency curve) and human health. The draft report was published December 2008.
  • Synthesis of the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  Monirul Mirza was the only Core Writing Team member selected from Canada for synthesizing the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.  The Report reiterated that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.
  • International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD). The IAASTD was an international effort involving 900 participants and 110 countries that evaluated the relevance, quality and effectiveness of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology (AKST), and the effectiveness of public and private sector policies and institutional arrangements in relation to AKST. It was a three-year collaborative effort (2005-2007) that assessed AKST in relation to meeting development and sustainability goals of reducing hunger and poverty, improving nutrition, health and rural livelihoods, and facilitating social and environmental sustainability. Monirul Mirza was coordinating lead author of the Scenarios Chapter of the East, South Asia and the Pacific Regional Assessment and lead author to the Global Scenarios Chapter of the 2008 IAASTD Report.

York University

Centre for Research in Earth and Space Science (CRESS) – an interdisciplinary research unit within the Faculty of Science and Engineering. The current areas of research cover a broad range of topics in earth and space sciences, from geodynamics to the study of the earth's troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, and thermosphere, and the earth's plasma environment.

Centre for Atmospheric Chemistry – laboratory and field campaigns devoted to the study of sources, sinks, physical transformations, and chemical processes occurring in the atmosphere and computer modeling to describe the present atmosphere and to predict the effect of future changes. Major atmospheric issues addressed include urban, regional and global oxidant formation, aerosol formation, photochemical smog, acid precipitation, stratospheric ozone depletion, global atmospheric change, arctic pollution, and airborne toxic chemicals.

IRIS supports the sustainability-related research of York faculty and brings academics together, encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration.
 
Advanced Broadband Enabled Learning program (ABEL) – integrates new and existing information communication technologies (ICT) in teaching and learning. Networks, partnerships, and a focus on research results in innovative models for teaching and learning.
 
York Climate Change Initiative (YCCI) prepares society for climate change implications by fostering, creating, and sharing high quality, integrated, regional climate research and knowledge, produced through inter-disciplinary and multi-sectoral collaborations in support of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Goverment of Ontario

In December 2007, an Expert Panel on Climate Change Adaptation was appointed to advise the province on adaptation strategies that address the impacts of climate change in our communities and ecosystems.
http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/en/news/2007/121201mb.php
 
In the spring of 2008, the Government of Ontario hosted a two-day summit where scientific experts and policy leaders discussed adaptive solutions to current and anticipated climate change impacts. The summit was attended by over 100 scientific, technical, and policy experts from across Canada, including representatives from every provincial and territorial government.
 
The province is supporting research and community outreach being conducted by organizations like the Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources. http://www.climateontario.ca/English/Home.html
http://www.climateontario.ca/
 
Further to these initiatives, the province established a Climate Change Secretariat to provide central support and direction to the government.
 
Ontario is a leader in the modernization of public infrastructure. Through initiatives such as the recently completed, $30 billion ReNew Ontario infrastructure investment plan, we are in the midst of a renaissance for Ontario’s public infrastructure. This investment in modern, quality infrastructure provides a resilient foundation for addressing current and future challenges for the people of Ontario, including the predicted changes in climate.
 
We have also committed to reducing our impact on the natural environment, and this commitment is significant to enhancing the resiliency of our infrastructure. For example, our commitment to adopt the internationally-recognized LEED standard for green buildings not only reduces our GHG emissions, but also ensures that our buildings are well designed and prepared for uncertain conditions.
 
To further these efforts, we have also supported adaptation research through our involvement in the Conference Board of Canada’s Leaders Roundtable on Climate Change Adaptation and Engineers Canada’s Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee. This research will provide the tools and insights necessary to identify where and how we are at risk to changing climate and how to mitigate this risk with strategic investments in our infrastructure.